Mountains and Valleys

There‘s lots of talk right now about capitulation, the top being in, this cycle being different from the others etc.

We continue to believe that we are roughly mid cycle. Every indicator we watch points to this. Can we be wrong? Of course! We still believe that bullish continuation is our best bet here and that ETH, together with select alts will outperform in the second half of the bull market. MAV is positioned accordingly.

If this makes you nervous, or even angry, this could be a sign that you are overexposed to the crypto market or have overblown expectations of how fast crypto should contribute to your financial wellbeing. In that case, there’s no harm in adjusting your positioning, by taking some money off the table, consolidating your portfolio into slow moving majors etc. Sometimes a little de risking brings back peace of mind.

Altcoins have been obliterated while BTC hovers near all time high and ETH sits close to its March high. Market sentiment is dark, dark enough to make us think that things should turn around soon. We remain convinced that the bull market isn't over yet.

We are moving some weight from SOL to ETH as it seems unlikely that the Ethereum ETF approval has already been fully priced in. We continue to keep an emphasis on the big caps. While it has looked like alt season is just around the corner for months now, the alts arena remains hostile territory. Focus on the ETFs has left little room for sustainable narratives beyond BTC and now ETH. Let's hope that this changes once ETH starts to run.

Rumors started circulating yesterday that the first Ethereum ETF applications in the US could get approved this week. This is an unexpected twist of fate, as analysts and prediction market participants previously only indicated a roughly 10% chance for an approval before August. ETH immediately rallied by almost 20% and all the long-term bagholders (like us) suddenly looked a little less stupid.

More and more signs are now popping up that the approvals will indeed happen. This would very likely be positive for the altcoin market in general, ETH catching a consistent bid and smaller alts following soon. Likely, we'll also start hearing rumors about potential new ETFs for several major altcoins soon. Those would however take a long time to actually manifest.

Looks like the bulls are back 🐂 - let's hope that there won't be any last minute surprises.

A common alts selection theme in this bull market is the proliferation of tokens with very low circulating supply and very high fully diluted valuation.

The situation is a reflection of the fact that recent projects went through many rounds of private funding before they hit the public market. Via aggressive token unlock schedules, those projects are turning retail investors into exit liquidity for those who were lucky enough to get into their previous rounds. Sadly, the chance to be early in crypto has been bottled up and made available exclusively to "big money" circles by now.

A positive sign seems to be that the market started punishing some projects with particularly greedy token minting strategies. Unfortunately, almost all projects that currently get market attention (aside from meme coins) are in this low float/high valuation category, they're just on a spectrum from worse to worst.

We deal with this situation by trying to stay away from the greediest projects, by picking projects that seem to have a chance to grow into their high valuation and by trying to spot last cycle projects that have a true chance at a renaissance (like $AR).

And yes, the above situation is one of the fundamental reasons why meme coins are doing so well this cycle. The "big money" investors brought this onto themselves by only leaving scraps to the little guys.