Diversitas

Weekly Update:

1. Market Overview

Last week, the price tested our trackline but bounced and managed to close the weekly candle well above it ✅ So far, the weekly chart is looking great!👌

On June 25th, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 30 (Fear), marking its lowest level in 18 months. Despite a minor price rebound, persistent negative sentiment from the public indicates waning patience. Combined with a low RSI and positive ETF flows, this suggests a potential bounce could be around the corner🤔

The $60k range (weekly trackline) is also acting as strong support, where long-term holders are adding to their positions👌$BTC

2. ETF Flows

Although 4 out of 5 days were positive, we saw a negative weekly ETF flow of $37,3 million📉That being said, it is great to see that the last 4 trading days had a positive flow. Let’s hope the trend continues and we start to see bigger inflows over the coming days!👀

3. On-Chain Data

• Coinbase Premium: Negative🔻
• Exchange Reserves: Low✅
• MVRV Ratio: 2 (cycle top usually above 3.7)✅
• Open Interest: High🤔
• Funding Rates: Low✅
• Fear and Greed Index: 53 (Nuteral)✅

Meanwhile, Bitcoin miner capitulation has reached levels comparable to December 2022👀

December 2022 marked the cycle bottom after the FTX collapse. This suggests that the local bottom may be already in as miners and many retail investors have sold their coins ahead of the Mt. Gox $BTC distribution🤔

4. Top Weekly News

• Kraken founder Jesse Powell met with Donald Trump and donated $1 million to his campaign.

https://www.theblock.co/post/302455/kraken-founder-jesse-powell-donates-1-million-to-donald-trump?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

• New York Times posted an interesting article titled “How Crypto Money Is Poised to Influence the Election”.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/technology/-crypto-influence-election.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

• BlackRock disclosed buying Bitcoin for its Global Allocation Fund in latest SEC filing.

https://www.banklesstimes.com/news/2024/06/27/blackrock-adds-bitcoin-to-its-global-allocation-fund-here-is-what-we-know/

• VanEck and 21Shares filed for spot Solana ETF.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/21shares-spot-solana-etf-sec

• Coinbase hits back, sues SEC and FDIC over FOIA requests

https://www.theblock.co/post/302145/coinbase-sues-sec-fdic-over-foia-requests-says-federal-regulators-trying-to-cut-out-crypto

• Galaxy Digital Head of research posted an interesting thread explaining why they believe the market is overestimating the sell pressure that will come from the Mt. Gox distribution.

https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/1805244957252284916

5. Summary

Historically, when $BTC experiences a negative June, it tends to rebound strongly in July, with an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% for the month🟢

If researchers at Galaxy Digital are correct and the market is overestimating the selling pressure from the Mt. Gox distribution, a strong recovery could occur in the coming week🤔

However, if the selling pressure persists and keeps $BTC prices suppressed, we expect to see a shift in attention to $ETH and altcoins👀

We will continue to monitor the market and increase our allocation if signs of an altseason emerge🚀