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Starting with $BTC ETF news, the first trading day of July saw a significant $130 million ETF inflow, marking the highest inflow since the beginning of June. In contrast, last month experienced consistent substantial outflows.

The first half of 2024 witnessed a surge in enthusiasm for crypto assets, leading to an all-time high for Bitcoin. However, due to price headwinds and the policy environment, volatility has decreased, impacting Bitcoin's performance. Long-term holders have started selling again, while a supply overhang continues to exert pressure on the market (possibility of selling from Mt. Gox depositors and Germany's Federal Police Office). In addition to this, the recent increase in selling by Long-Term Holders of Bitcoin, despite fewer miner sell-offs, indicates market instability and a vulnerable outlook in the short term.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure remained unchanged in May, slightly above the two percent target. Considering the weak GDP and declining consumer confidence, there are hopes for a rate cut in September. We remain cautious and are waiting in cash, however our long term bullish case for Bitcoin is unchanged.

How are we all feeling about $BTC retesting previous all time highs as new support just like previous cycles before lift off??? Go on, pop a weekly chart on for your entertainment and enjoy what you see.

Weekly Update:

1. Market Overview

Last week, the price tested our trackline but bounced and managed to close the weekly candle well above it ✅ So far, the weekly chart is looking great!👌

On June 25th, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 30 (Fear), marking its lowest level in 18 months. Despite a minor price rebound, persistent negative sentiment from the public indicates waning patience. Combined with a low RSI and positive ETF flows, this suggests a potential bounce could be around the corner🤔

The $60k range (weekly trackline) is also acting as strong support, where long-term holders are adding to their positions👌$BTC

3. On-Chain Data

• Coinbase Premium: Negative🔻
• Exchange Reserves: Low✅
• MVRV Ratio: 2 (cycle top usually above 3.7)✅
• Open Interest: High🤔
• Funding Rates: Low✅
• Fear and Greed Index: 53 (Nuteral)✅

Meanwhile, Bitcoin miner capitulation has reached levels comparable to December 2022👀

December 2022 marked the cycle bottom after the FTX collapse. This suggests that the local bottom may be already in as miners and many retail investors have sold their coins ahead of the Mt. Gox $BTC distribution🤔

5. Summary

Historically, when $BTC experiences a negative June, it tends to rebound strongly in July, with an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% for the month🟢

If researchers at Galaxy Digital are correct and the market is overestimating the selling pressure from the Mt. Gox distribution, a strong recovery could occur in the coming week🤔

However, if the selling pressure persists and keeps $BTC prices suppressed, we expect to see a shift in attention to $ETH and altcoins👀

We will continue to monitor the market and increase our allocation if signs of an altseason emerge🚀