Innlegg fra Strateger

It’s Been a Week on a Rollercoaster Fam🎢

This week saw sharp volatility across markets, with the strategy bouncing back 15% after a Fed-driven selloff and short liquidation squeeze.

The Fed’s rate cut of 25bps triggered hawkish sentiment, rattling investors along with political uncertainty over a potential U.S. government shutdown🪫

However, optimism is returning✅- Bitcoin is holding key support level around 97k-ish, and macroeconomic data points to resilience. Pro-crypto developments in the U.S. (BTC as a strategic reserve, First Czar of crypto& pro-crypto SEC chair, Blackrock& Microstrategy accumulating big...) suggest a favorable regulatory shift ahead. Markets are eyeing strong upward momentum📈

News like that are HEAVEN for our MEMECOIN stack, which will surge once the altcoin season continues🔥 "The higher Bitcoin goes, bigger the party for Alts". #staystrong💪#patienceiskey🧘‍♂️

Stanje ALTCOINOV👇🚀

Turbulentne makroekonomske in politične razmere še bolj kot na Bitcoin vplivajo na altcoine. Manjši kot je kovanec po tržni kapitalizaciji (vrednost=cena*količina kovancev v obtoku), bolj je spodvržen vplivom okolja in doživlja izrazitejša nihanja.

Ob tako emocionalno zahtevnih trenutkih je glavno spremljanje širše slike. Dnevna nihanja so irelevantna, če je trend v ciklu naklonjen. Podatki kažejo, da je TREND trenutno NAKLONJEN altcoinom ter da bodo v tem ciklu še naredili večje donose kot Bitcoin.

• Crypto Market cap: 3,5T (na rekordnih vrednotenjih)✅
• Altcoin Market cap: 1,35T (še ni presegel vrednosti iz leta 2021)✅
• Altcoin Season index: 50/100 (neodločenost trga)✅
• Bitcoin Dominanca: 59% (Bitcoin še vedno predstavlja več kot polovico celotnega trga kriptovalut)✅

Do you understand smart money now? They sold the market to move to their own area. :)

So, what should you do?

Do what they do.

But you must be cautious.

Additional.

Now what do you think :)

Do you understand whales better?

I'm neutral, but I have some short term contracts.

The crypto market records of recent years have opened a new era in the history of the industry, says Richard Teng, CEO of Binance. According to his forecast, growth will not stop next year, in which favorable changes in the regulatory environment in Europe and the United States, the adoption of blockchain technology in traditional financial markets, the development of infrastructure and further innovations will all play a role.I hope so!!!

$BTC

🔵 Deep Dive into Commitments of Traders

1. Total Positions (All):

Both long and short positions increased significantly,long positions grew slightly more than short positions in absolute numbers, but short positions remain dominant.

2. Commercial Positions:

Commercial traders increased their short positions significantly (+718), while long positions remained unchanged, showing a clear bearish outlook.

3. Large Speculators:

Large speculators increased both their long and short positions, with a greater focus on long positions. 

This suggests mixed sentiment but a slight bullish lean.

4. Small Traders:

Small traders marginally increased both their long and short positions, with a stronger focus on short positions, reflecting caution or bearish sentiment.

5. Open Interest:

A significant increase in open interest indicates greater participation and higher market activity, potentially leading to more volatility.

In short:

Commercial Traders: Bearish sentiment strengthened due to the rise in short positions and stagnant long positions.

Large Speculators: Show a mixed sentiment with a slight bullish bias due to the higher increase in long positions.

Small Traders: Leaning bearish due to the focus on short positions.

🔥 COT Trend: The market remains neutral to bearish, with growing short positions outpacing long positions slightly.

🔵 What Did Traders Do Between Reports?

Commercial Traders:

◾Increased short positions significantly (+718 contracts).

◾Long positions remained stagnant.

Action: Strengthened their bearish position.

Large Speculators:

◾Increased both long (+1,905) and short positions (+1,014), with a stronger focus on longs.

Action: Became more active, but leaned toward bullish positions.

Small Traders:

◾Slightly increased both long and short positions, with a greater focus on shorts (+184).

Action: Displayed cautious behavior, leaning bearish.

The commercial traders have shown a clear bearish sentiment, which, as you know, often signals that they are hedging in anticipation of the market's next move.

The key level of the whales can be pinpointed to November 13th, 14th, and 15th.

As a trader, I typically position myself to bet on the upside, but only within the whale zone.

But with this report I'm neutral this week, I will look at the next report next Friday.

See previous posts for Bitcoin analysis.

BURNO DOGAJANJE NA TRGIH

Rollercoaster na kripto trgih se nadaljuje. Po petkovem “čiščenju” long pozicij danes odboji z +10% rastjo in likvidacija “shorterjev”. Poudariti je treba, da je tako dogajanje v svetu kriptovalut pogosto.

KAJ JE SPROŽILO BURNE REAKCIJE TRGOV?

Delniške in kripto trge je v četrtek pretresel pesimističen ton govora guvernerja ameriške centralne banke. Ob pričakovanem znižanju obrestnih mer je napovedal začasno zaustavitev zniževanja le-teh za ohranitev nizke inflacije. Dodatno so strah med vlagatelji povzročile govorice o grozeči ustavitvi delovanja vlade v Ameriki. Stanje se na trgu kriptovalut optimistično izboljšuje.

Celotna slika kripto trgov deluje suvereno💪 Bitcoin drži ključne cone podpore, Blackrock, Microstrategy, Savdska Arbija in ostali ključni investitorji nadaljujejo z nakupi. Alt kovanci še pričakujejo enormne donose.✅🚨

• POTRJENO🚨: novi SEC chair, ki bo januarja ob nastopu nove vlade zamenjal Genslerja, bo po vsej verjetnosti NAKLONJEN kriptovalutam. Bo to Paul Atkins? --> Twitter ✅🚀
• Prvi “Czar of crypto” oziroma vladni predstavnik kripta in umetne inteligence v ZDA bo David Sacks --> Twitter ✅ 🔥
• Powell javno izpostavil, da Bitcoin NE bo strateška rezerva. Senatorka Cynthia Lummins kljub temu ZAGOTAVLJA vključitev Bitcoina kot rezervo ZDA. Dva pomembna faktorja na različnih bregovih, kdo bo prevladal? --> Intervju 🕟
• Microsoft na skupščini z veliko večino ZAVRNIL investiranje prostih sredstev v bitcoin. --> Twitter. 🚫

BURNO DOGAJANJE ZA BITCOIN 

Rollercoaster na kripto trgih se nadaljuje. Po petkovem “čiščenju” long pozicij danes odboji z +10% rastjo in likvidacija “shorterjev”. Poudariti je treba, da je tako dogajanje v svetu kriptovalut običajno.

KAJ JE SPROŽILO BURNE REAKCIJE TRGOV?

Delniške in kripto trge je v četrtek pretresel pesimističen ton govora guvernerja ameriške centralne banke. Ob pričakovanem znižanju obrestnih mer je napovedal začasno zaustavitev zniževanja le-teh za ohranitev nizke inflacije. Dodatno so strah med vlagatelji povzročile govorice o grozeči ustavitvi delovanja vlade v Ameriki. Stanje se na trgu kriptovalut optimistično izboljšuje.

Celotna slika kripto trgov deluje suvereno💪Bitcoin drži ključne cone podpore, preostali kovanci še pričakujejo enormne donose.

• POTRJENO🚨: novi SEC chair, ki bo januarja ob nastopu nove vlade zamenjal Genslerja, bo po vsej verjetnosti NAKLONJEN kriptovalutam. Bo to Paul Atkins? --> Twitter ✅🚀
• Prvi “Czar of crypto” oziroma vladni predstavnik kripta in umetne inteligence v ZDA bo David Sacks --> Twitter ✅ 🔥
• Powell javno izpostavil, da Bitcoin NE bo strateška rezerva. Senatorka Cynthia Lummins kljub temu ZAGOTAVLJA vključitev Bitcoina kot rezervo ZDA. Dva pomembna faktorja na različnih bregovih, kdo bo prevladal? --> Intervju 🕟
• Microsoft na skupščini z veliko večino ZAVRNIL investiranje prostih sredstev v bitcoin. --> Twitter. 🚫

Almost four weeks ago, I mentioned that during the 2016-2018 bull run, there were six drawdowns of approximately 30%. If this one shook you out, you missed the point.

MARKET'S DELEVERAGING & $GMX UPDATE 👇

Recently i've been holding for few weeks $USDT and was waiting for this drop to occur as there was way too much leverage.

We managed to buy $ROSE around 0,104, $GMX at 33$, $OSMO at 0,61$, $ATOM at 7,5$. Although markets continued to drop to new lows.

We bought our favourite altcoins at -25% discount, although markets droped from local highs to -45%.

I'm quite happy we bought the drop, but you can never buy the bottom. To every follower here if you wish to win big time in 2025 now is the time to buy Altcoins. This is the moment you've been waiting for 😉

If you sense FEAR this just approoves you need to BUY BIG TIME ✅

Now let's go to $GMX UPDATE👇

Current deleveraging has generated massive revenues for $GMX. Past week occured biggest buyback ever for the protocol.

$GMX has also partnered with TELEGRAM, which has 900M users world wide.

$GMX & Telegram will develop features to bring DeFi to the masses.

$GMX is just a 300M$ project with highest revenue and biggest buyback from all DeFi protocols 🔥

User base will massively grow with Telegram's partnership in 2025. More users, more volumes, more liquidations creates a perfect flywheel for $GMX stakeholders. $SOL is also going to be integrated soon.

This is the biggest onchain fundamental strong play and everybody is sleeping on it.

By buying my crypto strategy you are diversified to high quality projects. In this post I have just highlighted $GMX but other projects will also get their updates.

Happy holidays, stack smart as santa gave you cheap entry and let's win big time in 2025 🚀🔥

ALTCOIN SEASON 2025 👀