Diversitas

1. Market Overview

Santa rally did not materialize and the holiday season delivered dull price action—likely unpopular but undeniably necessary. Bitcoin’s daily RSI has returned to levels last seen when $BTC was trading around $60k, open interest has been completely reset and funding has on some exchanges turned negative. This scenario often precedes a strong push to the upside. If history repeats itself, the next 3–4 months could see a parabolic rally, with Ethereum and other altcoins taking center stage👀

As shown below, Ethereum (and altcoins) tend to rally in the first quarter following a halving year👇

2. ETF Flows

It appears that institutions are shifting gears in anticipation of a potential $ETH rally, moving out of $BTC and into $ETH 👀

• BTC ETFs Weekly Flow: -$377,6 million🤔
• ETH ETFs Weekly Flow: +$349,3 million🤑

3. On-Chain Data

• Coinbase Premium: Negative🤔
• Exchange Reserves: Low✅
• MVRV Ratio: 2.30 (Cycle Top Above 3.7)✅
• Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): 56 (Cycle Top Above 75)✅
• Open Interest: Moderate✅
• Funding Rates: Very Low✅
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)✅

Meanwhile, significant stablecoin deposits are pouring into major crypto exchanges, with Binance leading the pack at $29 billion in USDT and USDC reserves. As stablecoin balances climb, new highs are expected 👀

4. Top Weekly News

MicroStrategy buys over 5,000 bitcoin for $561 million, bringing total holdings to 444,262 BTC

https://www.theblock.co/post/332182/microstrategy-buys-another-5000-bitcoin-for-561-million-bringing-total-holdings-to-444262-btc

Bitwise, Ramaswamy's Strive file for ETFs investing in companies with Bitcoin treasuries

https://www.theblock.co/post/332419/bitwise-ramaswamys-strive-file-for-etfs-investing-in-companies-with-bitcoin-treasuries

Why the launch of bitcoin ETF options marks a key milestone for institutional crypto trading

https://www.theblock.co/post/329125/bitcoin-etf-options-milestone-institutional-crypto-trading

Crypto OTC desks say trading volumes are ‘going gangbusters right now’

https://www.theblock.co/post/332086/crypto-otc-desks-say-trading-volumes-are-going-gangbusters-right-now

Hong Kong spot crypto ETFs will see ‘substantial growth’ in 2025, OSL executive says

https://www.theblock.co/post/330298/hong-kong-spot-crypto-etfs-will-see-substantial-growth-in-2025-osl

5. Summary

While the past week may have seemed uneventful at first glance, there’s been no shortage of noteworthy developments. Key indicators have reset nicely, Ethereum ETFs started gaining momentum, whales continued $ETH accumulation, stablecoins began to flow into exchanges, and we started seeing strong signs of altcoin accumulation.

In addition, a flurry of ETF filings appeared in these last days of the year:

• Strive BTC Bond ETF
• Bitwise BTC Standard Corporations ETF
• REX BTC Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF
• VolatilityShares SOL Futures ETFs (1x, 2x, and -1x exposure)
• ProShares BTC Hedged ETFs on S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and gold

With so many catalysts lining up, 2025 is set to be an exciting year for crypto. Buckle up—things could get wild!🔥