Diversitas

Crypto Market Pulse👀

• Positive Coinbase Premium✅
• $274 million flowed into $BTC ETFs🤑
• Strategy bought $10 million worth of $BTC 💰
• The crowd is scared and there are calls for bear market all over X😱
• Never has the crowd been right about the direction, the markets always move into the opposite direction🤔

The level of fear is so extreme that the market has completely overlooked weeks of bullish news. If Jerome Powell hints at a dovish shift tomorrow, we could see a sharp move higher📈Finally, Looking at the weekly chart, the parabolic uptrend remains intact😉

1. Market Overview

Our holdings continue to consolidate tightly around our trackline, with just a small push needed to regain bullish momentum. A breakout from this range could quickly turn sentiment around.

There are several potential catalysts on the horizon, but two stand out:

• The upcoming FOMC meeting
• The completion of Strategy’s $21 billion raise and the start of their Bitcoin purchases

While the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates this week, Polymarket data shows a 100% probability of a rate cut before May—a move that would be bullish for risk assets🤔

What we need to keep in mind is that markets tend to position themselves ahead of major events. This means a shift into risk-on assets could be closer than most expect. In fact, we don’t even need an actual rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting—a simple dovish tone from Jerome Powell could be enough to push markets back up👀

2. ETF Flows

Outflows persist, but as we’ve noted before, they remain relatively small compared to the overall size of the ETFs. The key takeaway? 95% of investors are holding strong through this correction, signaling long-term confidence in the market—a bullish sign despite short-term turbulence.

• $BTC ETFs Weekly Flow: -$921,4 million
• $ETH ETFs Weekly Flow: -$189,9 million

3. On-Chain Data

• Coinbase Premium: Hovering near zero✅
• Exchange Reserves: Low✅
• MVRV Ratio: 1.89 (Cycle Top Above 3.7)✅
• Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): 47 (Cycle Top Above 75)✅
• Open Interest: Low✅
• Funding Rates: Low✅
• CMC Fear and Greed Index: 22 (Fear)✅

More importantly, the volume of bearish taker orders on exchanges has been steadily declining. The number of traders willing to sell or short has dropped significantly, reducing downward pressure. With fewer sellers in the market, conditions are primed for the next leg up📈

4. Top Weekly News

Cooling US inflation could give Fed 'wiggle room to cut rates' and potentially boost risk assets

https://www.theblock.co/post/346055/cooling-us-inflation-could-give-fed-wiggle-room-to-cut-rates-and-potentially-boost-risk-assets-analysts-say

For the first time, Goldman Sachs acknowledges crypto in annual shareholder letter

https://www.theblock.co/post/346411/for-the-first-time-goldman-sachs-acknowledges-crypto-in-annual-shareholder-letter

Russia using crypto in oil trade with China and India to skirt Western sanctions

https://www.theblock.co/post/346337/russia-crypto-oil-trade-china-india-western-sanctions-reuters

BlackRock's BUIDL first to cross $1 billion mark, making it the largest tokenized fund tracking onchain Treasuries

https://www.theblock.co/post/346237/blackrocks-buidl-first-to-cross-1-billion-mark-making-it-the-largest-tokenized-fund-tracking-onchain-treasuries

US Bitcoin ETFs erase year-to-date gains as cumulative inflows drop to lowest value since January 2

https://www.theblock.co/post/346491/us-bitcoin-etfs-erase-year-to-date-gains-as-cumulative-inflows-drop-to-lowest-value-since-january-2