Crypto Weekly Wrap: 13th June 2025
Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Geopolitical Risk and Fractal Reversal Signals
Bitcoin’s recent drop from the $110,653 peak to current levels around $104,700 reflects a confluence of geopolitical and technical factors weighing on the market. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have spurred a flight to safety, triggering a broader risk-off mood across global markets. Investors have opted to reduce exposure to volatile assets like crypto amid fears of potential military escalation. At the same time, Bitcoin’s recent rally appears to have exhausted short-term momentum, prompting profit-taking near resistance.
Technical indicators confirm the cautious mood. On the 5-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 45.52 after briefly peaking near 60, reflecting fading bullish momentum. The RSI’s rejection near 60 aligns with fractal analysis that previously warned of a similar pattern from January, where BTC failed to reclaim highs and corrected lower. Volume analysis reveals a sharp uptick to 146.92M in the last 24 hours, suggesting increased market activity during the drop, likely from liquidation events and heightened selling pressure. While the price has shown signs of stabilising above $104,000, failure to reclaim $108,000 could validate the fractal’s bearish implications and open the door for a deeper correction toward the key $100,000 support zone.
Source: TradingView
Ethereum Plunges on Geopolitical Fears as Technicals Signal Oversold Conditions
Ethereum saw a steep decline of over 10% on Friday, crashing to $2,450 as geopolitical tensions escalated following Israeli airstrikes on Iran. The sharp downturn was part of a broader market correction that liquidated over $1.1 billion in crypto positions within 24 hours. According to Coinglass data, ETH perpetual futures accounted for $291 million in losses, with $245 million of that from long positions. This market reaction underscores the heightened sensitivity of crypto assets to global conflict and uncertainty. The move erased much of Ethereum’s monthly gains and ended its recent uptrend abruptly.
From a technical perspective, the ETH/USD chart reflects oversold momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting near 40 and showing limited recovery. Trading volume spiked significantly, peaking above 735 million, reinforcing the aggressive exit from positions. The sell-off appears to have stabilised near $2,500, but the RSI suggests bearish pressure persists. No immediate bullish divergence or reversal pattern has emerged, which aligns with the MACD still leaning negative. Analysts caution that Ethereum’s recovery will depend less on chart patterns and more on macro news in the coming days, particularly around developments in the Middle East and U.S. monetary policy.
Source: TradingView
Inflation Cooldown and Trade Peace Fuel Broader Crypto OptimismThe broader crypto market is showing signs of cautious optimism, supported by easing inflationary pressures and renewed geopolitical stability. U.S. President Donald Trump’s confirmation of a finalized trade deal with China—including a rollback of tariffs to February 2025 levels—has alleviated some global economic tensions. This has helped create a favourable environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Despite a 3.95% dip in the CoinMarketCap 100 Index, the total crypto market cap remains resilient at $3.26 trillion, with trading volume surging to $169.83 billion. The Fear and Greed Index sits at a neutral 54, reflecting mixed investor sentiment. While altcoins lag behind—evident from the Altcoin Season Index score of 26—Bitcoin dominance continues amid fiscal concerns and uncertainty about future U.S. monetary policy. As traditional markets falter and inflation cools, crypto assets are increasingly seen as alternative hedges, poised to benefit from any pivot toward looser monetary conditions.
Source: Coinmarketcap
Regulatory Front: GENIUS Act Advances Amid Trump Crypto Links
Stablecoin regulation took centre stage this week as the U.S. Senate advanced the GENIUS Act—short for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins—with a 68–30 vote in favour of cloture. This move clears the way for a final Senate vote as early as next Monday, although political controversy remains heated.
The bill mandates full dollar backing for stablecoins and introduces strict auditing requirements for issuers with more than $50 billion in circulation. While Republicans hail it as a win for innovation and national security, several Democrats have voiced concerns. Senator Elizabeth Warren accused the legislation of legitimising crypto ventures tied to Donald Trump, who now serves as “Chief Crypto Advocate” for World Liberty Financial (WLFI).
Source: X
SEC Pushback on Staking ETFs
Despite ongoing regulatory friction, Bitcoin and Ethereum are powering market gains. The strength comes even as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) intensifies scrutiny over staking-based ETF proposals, particularly those involving Ethereum and Solana from REX Financial and Osprey Funds.
The SEC’s recent objections have reignited concerns around regulatory inconsistency. Although the agency previously hinted that staking might not qualify as securities activity, its current stance suggests internal conflict.
Source: X
While many altcoins recorded losses over the week, such as Solana (SOL) down 2.44%, Toncoin (TON) falling 4.93%, and HBAR dropping a notable 6.77%, major assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) held firm with gains of 1.11% and 1.74% respectively. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) stood out with an impressive 6.72% weekly rise, and Binance Coin (BNB) also performed well, climbing 1.76%. Despite macro headwinds and regulatory uncertainty, the resilience of BTC and ETH reflects sustained investor confidence in leading blockchain ecosystems.
Weekly Heatmaps
Source: Quantifycrypto
Meme Coins and Layer 2s Fuel Speculative Frenzy
Meme coins remain central to speculative interest in the crypto space, with leading tokens showing diverging trends. Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently priced at $0.1880, down 6.64% over the last 24 hours, while Shiba Inu (SHIB) has slipped 4.93% to $0.00001268. PEPE is now trading at $0.00001088, marking a 5.43% daily decline, with an active 24-hour trading volume of $1.23 billion. Despite the losses, these tokens remain among the most visited assets, reflecting strong retail fascination. Meanwhile, OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) has edged up 0.92% to $10.34, as political meme coins stay in the spotlight.
Source: Coinmarketcap
PEPE, in particular, has caught traders’ attention following a sharp selloff that pushed it toward the $0.00001050 support level. However, a rebound has taken place, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) surging to 63.66 and volume climbing to 42.92 million, suggesting renewed buying pressure. While long-term upside toward $0.000015 may take time, the recent bounce from oversold territory points to a short-term recovery. A key resistance now lies near $0.00001120, and a break above could confirm continuation. The price action and momentum indicators show early signs of a shift, but PEPE must sustain above $0.00001088 to keep bullish hopes alive.
Source: TradingView
This week’s developments reflect a maturing yet dynamic crypto environment. From BTC’s bullish technical formations to Ethereum’s leveraged breakout, market sentiment is improving. Macroeconomic tailwinds, regulatory action, and expanding adoption across Layer 2s and DeFi protocols further strengthen the case for digital assets in 2025. Investors remain cautiously optimistic as volatility persists—but so does opportunity.
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