Green Machine

It's been a long time since the last post (March 2023) and since then the strategy has more or less been in hodl mode with few changes, just auto rebalances every month. As the space heats up again (ETF imminent & halving imminent which are both hugely bullish) now is the time to become more active.

As things stand, my expectations are as follows: ETF approval should see BTC gobble up marketshare followed by either a sell off in everything or an alt season prior to the sell off in everything. After that sell off, we'll be in up-only mode until at least the end of the year and alts are the smart money play. There'll be some major airdrops in 2024 and restaking solutions will thrive (with eigenlayer leading the way) making ETH more attractive than BTC *but* that extra layer of complexity involved in generating yield will inevitably result in major exploits & losses so you definitely want to DYOR with any restaking project and not just chase the highest yield expecting your ETH to remain safe.

General update on things as it's been a couple of months since last post. I see no reason to change weights at the minute so right now the portfolio is set to auto-rebalance monthly.

With the US eager to shut down anything remotely connected to crypto, it's only serving to fuel and accelerate interest and adoption in DeFi. Arbitrum airdrop has helped too and with zkSync Era mainnet launch the whole space feels like it's heating up again. It's also worth noting we're only a year out from the next Bitcoin halving so that too will be of comfort to bulls and help to re-emphasize to the world the fact that supply only goes down unlike the fiat currencies the bears flock to.

In April, Ethereum will experience a token unlock with the Shanghai hard fork and naturally you'd expect some selling to occur. How much is anyone's guess but there is a danger it could be front-run, triggering people who are receiving their unlocked ETH to panic sell further. I'll be keeping a close eye on ETH movements and if I feel there's some front-running likely to happen, I won't hesitate to go all stables or all BTC with a view to getting back in to alts when the dust settles.

It's been over 3 months since last rebalance and the big gainer has been $FTM, up 97%. $BTC and $ETH are both up about 20% since last rebalance and everything else is mostly green too apart from $RSR (down 31%). Keeping everything as it was but adding a 2% $LDO position and taking it from $RSR. 2022 was a terrible year for crypto and towards the end of the year I believe we saw a lot of people crystalizing losses which kept everything suppressed. We're off to a better start in 2023 and the major thing to watch out for this year will be ETH's Shanghai update due in March which will free up a lot of currently locked ETH. Towards the end of the year, I'd also expect hype to be building as usual for BTC's halving event due in May 2024.

Been a couple of months since last rebalance just before ETH merge. Unfortunately almost everything is down since then by about 20%. However, with inflation out of control and monetary policy everywhere being tested, it's all helping to promote crypto and the concepts of deflation, fixed supply, public ledgers etc. Rebalancing now with no changes in assets but shuffling weights around so that $BTC is largest holding followed by $ETH and $ATOM. The logic for that is that historically, BTC leads the charge out of a bear market and against ETH on long term monthly charts, it's looking like it's due a run upwards.

Making ETH the largest holding at 30%. As we build up to the merge (supposed to be happening next month) I predict demand for it will only continue to grow in anticipation of a hard fork and the 'free money' that may come with it. Several exchanges are supporting or will support ETHPOW futures and it's likely there'll be strong demand for ETH and a lot of volume next month as a result of that plus the possibility of there being some liquidity for major POW ERC20 tokens.