Post 2/2
We will need huge amounts of liquidity for the alt season to properly start, multiples compared to previous bull runs, and even then it will be important where this liquidity flows. The problem in the end are the investors themselves, because they are impatient and want 100x or even 1000x returns over night instead of trying to grow their portfolios incrementally and that's why at least so far the liquidity has not flowed into major alt coins.
If anyone tells you at this point that they know where the market will go they are either lying on purpose or are overconfident in their truth. We can just try to predict, we cannot know, but in our view we have a few months left for the alt season to play out, before the period of low summer liquidity kicks in. If there will be an alt season we think it either happens in Q1/start of Q2 or towards the end of the year in late Q3/Q4. A lot depends on Jerome Powell’s speeches (one is happening tomorrow) and how traditional markets will react, we do not see a scenario where traditional markets go down and crypto markets go up.
There has been a lot of different talks, from pro-crypto administration in the US to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, ETF for $ETH staking and so on. The big picture has been the same when we zoom out, the global liquidity is still increasing and will continue to at least for the next few months, after that it is a bit more blurry, because the FED has already started reducing their balance sheet, but liquidity is coming from other sources.
As stated multiple times, we still believe in alt season, that is why we have not rebalanced our portfolio a lot, we still believe in $INJ the most, but only time will tell where we will end up. We will be switching $RUNE to $LDO, because Thorchain’s future is somewhat unclear at this moment and if $ETH staking ETF will happen then $LDO should perform well in theory.
We are keeping track on what is going on in the market on a daily basis, but as stated in the posts from the past, until our thesis changes we will not be making any major changes to the portfolio and are staying hopeful for the potential alt season.
