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Volatility Is A Bitcoin Investor’s Friend - CHAINLETTER 45
Price volatility has always been a stick with which to beat bitcoin $BTC . But is it a useful tool for understanding either its risk or its value?
We argue that for those who take the time to understand bitcoin, volatility is simply the cost of compounding.
All this and more in the latest edition of CHAINLETTER.
Loving this market...
"Have I Missed It (3)?" is the title of our latest newsletter. Again we look at the state of the $BTC market and evaluate whether there is more to play for. 📈 Technical High level consolidation, beating the S&P, cycle update, will BTC dominance continue to rise? ⛓️On-Chain Network activity boost, hash power soars, valuation update 🌎 Macro The Institutional Cycle, how big is this? UK inflation and Rachel Reeves Photo taken in Istanbul, capital of a country which knows all about currency devaluation...
To put this $BTC move into context, it's worth looking at its performance versus previous cycles. This is shown in the charts and the similarities are freakish.
The question we're all asking is, "Why should this repeat?" My answer would be that everything has changed from a demand perspective.
This is going to be the "Institutional Cycle".
For the first time, the world's largest pools of capital can contemplate an allocation to the world's dominant digital currency (see "Macro" section in our latest research letter here for evidence).
While Bitcoin has gone up a lot in value, its market cap of ~US$1.8 trillion remains insignificant compared to gold (~US$20 trillion), Global Fixed Income Markets (~US$141 trillion) and Global Equities ~(US$115 trillion)*.
This is a mammoth pool of capital which effectively has a zero allocation to bitcoin, the supply of which increases by only 0.8% per year.
Meanwhile, US debt increases by US$1 trillion every 100 days. There has never been a more pressing need for sound money.
Institutional investors are smart, and they know this. But they haven't been able to move because of the regulatory and reputational risks.
That just changed with the election of Donald Trump and JD Vance.
"Magnificent And Terrifying" is the title of our latest crypto letter. You can read it HERE.
Technical Small break-out, gold and DXY say “something has changed”, ETF inflows
On-Chain Pick-up in activity, Total Value Locked leaps, valuation update
Macro Magnificent and Terrifying – what the gold price is telling us and why bitcoin will follow
Cryptoverse Decentralised Exchanges examined, a look at SUI, has blockchain gaming finally found a winner, Helium numbers continue to impress
Despite these interesting developments it remains a tough time for altcoins, but the stars are aligning for a big move in $BTC.
Our latest CHAINLETTER ("Poised For Action") is out and can be found here. It's a free fortnightly publication and you're warmly invited to sign up to receive it directly.
CHAINLETTER is aimed at the longer term investor rather than the short term trader (although we hope both will extract some value from it). We examine technical, on-chain and macro factors, as well as look at new and interesting projects in the eco-system.
In today's issue:
Technical Support at the 365-day moving average. $ETH halves relative to $BTC in two years
On-Chain Pick up in value transacted, higher velocity and fair value
Macro Gold vs bitcoin price anomaly, the value of hard assets
Cryptoverse Maple Finance, Velo and SuperVerse
As relative newcomers to ICONOMI we have been quietly putting together our strategy, which is all about doing proper research and trying to find high quality longer term investments. Perhaps strangely for such a volatile asset class, we expect the slow and steady approach to win out in the longer run. It's a lesson from 25 years as an Emerging Asia Fund Manager.
While it's disappointing to lose money on any timeframe, if we assume this is a sector with a fantastic future it's very dangerous to time markets. It might work once or twice, but consistent success is almost impossible. That's why we are long-only. Our investors can then be absolutely sure of what they are getting.
So far so good. What we want is to be consistently in the "Above Average" buckets, much more so for the longer than the shorter term.
