Crypto-Base.eu Strategy

Good morning everyone,

What a choppy market we are in at the moment. BTC support levels are being tested pretty hard the last few days, ETF inflows have slowed down and Coinbase premium is turn negative as well.

In all honesty we thought we would see a break out of the current range earlier. It looks like there are still some people panic selling before we can continue up.

Looking at the open short positions there is just way too much to be liquidated if we reach the 70k level again. But before we can look at that the overall market sentiment needs to be improved. Fear of the U.S. getting into a stagflation scenario are returning diminishing hopes of an early reduction in interest rates.

Looking at our last post we can see the expectation of dip after the halving is playing out at the moment. Historically, the bull run comes after.

It has been said a few times and might sound like a broken record, but patience will be rewarded even if there is some pain right now. Hang in there, don't be tempted to sell at these levels.

All the best out there and a good day to all.

Extra Update.

Here is a nice chart to give you some thought about the halving and what has historically happened in a year span after the halving. Zoom out and relax.

Good evening all,

Welcome to the rollercoaster! What a choppy ranged we have been trading in this month. The last drop has been pretty brutal in performance and wiping out longs. Shorts are having a great time, but, as with the gains, this is not sustainable.

Why are we tanking so hard? An unfortunate game of smart money playing the market and external factors.

Ever since we reached the new BTC ATH an accumulation can be observed on chain of the big wallets. These guys have one goal, get BTC as cheap as possible. Seeing how much over leveraged longs are openend every time the market pumps, a lot of liquidity is to be had (cheap BTC to buy) by tanking the market. It was looking like this was going to be the bottom again last Friday but then geo-politics came into play.

World news about Iran attacking Israel gave the market and extra downward leg in which we are currently trading. Looking at the S&P500 and the DOW30, we can see negative sentiment as well. Historically BTC has followed big moves in the financial market and now it is looking to do the same.

So, more pain? Charts on the Lower Time Frames are in over-sold territory. Depending on how much the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, we might see another drop before recovery. Accumulation continues looking on-chain and news about the ETF approval in Hong-Kong and other governing bodies world wide considering it tells us buy pressure will be prevalent. So far the 60k level has been a good support and would be a nice setup for a new rally.

What are we doing? Not jumping in and out as previously mentioned. It is hard to watch losses, but it is part of the game. Fundamentals are good and we believe that on higher time frames we will make profit soon. 7 days remain till the BTC halving, not a time to exit the market with this much interest coming in. Sit back, relax, we are keeping an eye our for you.

Have a good night and till the next update!

Good evening everyone,

For this weeks update we'll be looking at what we expect the market to do and provide some insight.

Firstly the GBTC sell pressure seems to be easing which will give us a true chance to take advantage of the extra ETF inflows. This will, in our opinion, make for a positive price development. BTC between the $48-50k mark seems to be in play.

Looking at factors negatively influencing the price are miner outflows. Looks like they are keen on securing some profit leading up to the halvening. We do see that the ETF inflows for now are cancelling them out giving the market an overall positive development.

All in all the market is looking to rebound form the losses over the last two weeks. Coinbase Premium is showing positive signs signifying buy pressure form the US, whereas it was deeply negative last week.

We are going to maintain our exposure in the market and have even added a little from out BTC position to our altcoins holdings since we believe they will outperform BTC in the near future.

Looking ahead towards the halvening the game plan is to increase BTC percentage leading up to it. Historically the market had declined right after the halvening only to become profitable again a few months later. Knowing this there will be a good opportunity to buy back some altcoins at a discount and increase profitability in the medium term (6-12 months).

Also worth a watch in regards to market development is the weekly Glassnode update. You can find their latest video here https://youtu.be/_tEnrQG1Vvs?si=1wrUi2AF0WqWmjdE if you are interested in some more in depth analysis.

For now have a good evening and till next week!

$BTC

A little more explanation about why people are selling GBTC for actual spot ETF BTC.

Last two year, there was a huge discount if you invested in the GBTC fund (almost up to 50% discount!). You can see from the chart below that discount has closed fast due to the ETF approval. It makes sense that these investors are cashing their rewards and want to jump onto the ETF bandwagon and not be stuck paying fees to Grayscale and having the issue of additional price swings in the GBTC fund.

With a spot ETF the price is correlated directly, with GBTC in addition to the BTC fluctuations you also have to deal with the demand for the GBTC product. In other words, with the ETF approval there is less cost and additional risk involved.

Estimates by Bloomberg were that about 3 Billion worth of BTC was bought with this discount. Since they now have a substantial profit and the discount gap has pretty much closed it makes sense for them to exit their positions and invest directly into an BTC ETF.

A little more patience for these parties to rearrange their positions and we will be on our way up again.

$BTC