Diversitas

1. Market Overview

Markets remain stuck in a tight range this week, still weighed down by the lingering uncertainty around Trump’s trade war. The risk-off mood has kept price action muted, but there are early signs of progress as the U.S. and China have finally reopened dialogue — a step in the right direction that could ease tensions and unlock some relief for both equities and crypto.

At the same time, the conversation is shifting back to the Fed, as more voices on Wall Street question whether policymakers are once again "late to the party" on rate cuts. As Bank of America pointed out this week:

"The Fed cut 50bps in September when the stock market was at record highs and Atlanta Fed was forecasting +3% US GDP growth; now the Fed appears determined not to cut rates, even after a 20% market plunge, while the Atlanta Fed is forecasting -3% GDP growth."

This growing disconnect between economic reality and policy is adding another layer of tension — but also sets the stage for a potentially sharp market reaction once the Fed moves👀

2. ETF Flows

This week’s ETF flows were fairly muted, reflecting the broader market indecision. Bitcoin ETFs managed to stay in positive territory with $13.7 million in inflows, showing steady demand despite the choppy price action. On the other hand, Ethereum ETFs saw $32.3 million in outflows, suggesting that some investors are still rotating away from ETH or waiting for clearer catalysts before adding exposure. Overall, a quiet but telling week as the market continues to digest macro uncertainty🤔

• BTC ETFs: +$13,7 million
• ETH ETFs: -$32,3 million

3. On-Chain Data

• Coinbase Premium: Positive✅
• Exchange Reserves: Low✅
• MVRV Ratio: 1.93 (Cycle Top Above 3.7)✅
• Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): 48 (Cycle Top Above 75)✅
• Open Interest: Low✅
• Funding Rates: Low✅
• CMC Fear and Greed Index: 34 (Fear)✅

Meanwhile, Bitcoin wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 $BTC — now control 67.77% of the total supply. Despite the recent market swings in April, these wallets have stayed in accumulation mode, adding more than 53,600 BTC since March 22nd. A strong sign of confidence from the smart money!👀

4. Top Weekly News

Arizona leads crypto reserve legislation race as SB 1373 passes House committee

https://www.theblock.co/post/351240/arizona-leads-crypto-reserve-legislation-race-as-sb-1373-passes-house-committee

Fed chair hints at easing crypto rules for banks as Trump says Powell's termination 'cannot come fast enough

https://www.theblock.co/post/351205/the-daily-fed-chair-hints-at-easing-crypto-rules-for-banks-as-trump-says-powells-termination-cannot-come-fast-enough-and-more

Semler Scientific files $500 million offering to buy more bitcoin amid DOJ settlement

https://www.theblock.co/post/350934/semler-scientific-files-500-million-offering-to-buy-more-bitcoin-amid-doj-settlement

BIS report calls for 'containment' of crypto risks as TradFi connections deepen, sparking criticism

https://www.theblock.co/post/351305/bis-report-calls-for-containment-of-crypto-risks-as-tradfi-connections-deepen-sparking-criticism

5. Summary

Looking ahead, the stage seems set for another wave of institutional and macro-driven momentum. China’s M2 money supply has surged to a new all-time high of $326 trillion, providing ample global liquidity, a backdrop that historically benefits hard assets like Bitcoin. On the corporate front, Japanese fashion giant ANAP has joined the growing list of firms adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, allocating $70 million to the asset as part of its treasury strategy. Meanwhile, industry chatter suggests that at least two more major institutions are preparing to follow suit, further reinforcing the idea that "Bitcoin as a reserve asset" is quickly becoming a global trend.

Adding to the excitement, blockchain data shows Abraxas Capital snapped up $250 million worth of Bitcoin in just four days. With liquidity rising and institutional adoption accelerating, the groundwork for the next leg higher is being laid.

P.S. The current setup is starting to look extremely bullish. We’ve just seen a confirmed weekly RSI breakout, and our algorithm has started printing green dots above the trackline for $BTC, $SOL, and $INJ — a strong signal of trend strength. The rest of the portfolio is not far behind, and only needs a minor push to the upside to fully confirm. If momentum holds, we expect to finalize the transition to the new algorithm over the coming days. Exciting times ahead!🚀