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5. Summary

Although the long-term outlook appears bullish, the market is currently experiencing turbulence tied to Chinese DeepSeek AI. Its DeepSeek-R1 reportedly offers OpenAI-o1-level intelligence at 90% lower costs, sparking concerns about its potential impact on Nvidia and the broader AI sector—a major component of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. This has led to a decline in futures, spilling over into crypto markets, despite no direct impact on digital assets themselves.

From our perspective, this short-term panic could, in the worst-case scenario (a larger stock market drop), trigger money printing that would ultimately fuel our rocket. Our long-term projections remain unchanged, so we don’t plan to alter any strategy changes at the moment. We will wait a little longer to see how things play out but for now it seems like the market is somewhat overreacting🤦‍♂️

P.S.

Overnight Reaction to DeepSeek:

• Arm, $ARM: -5.5%
• Nvidia, $NVDA: -5.3%
• Broadcom, $AVGO: -4.9%
• Super Micro, $SMCI: -4.6%
• Taiwan Semi, $TSM: -4.5%
• Micron, $MU: -4.3%
• Qualcomm, $QCOM: -2.8%
• AMD, $AMD: -2.5%
• Intel, $INTC: -2.0%

US markets are on track to erase over $1 trillion of market cap in Monday's session.

On Friday, we also posted our monthly rebalance. $BTC and $ETH were returned to 40% and 30% respectively. $IMX and $INJ fell out of our parameters and were removed. $ARB and $FIL have been added in their place.

With that, we also submitted the monthly rebalance of BLX as per our parameters. 

We added Aave ($AAVE) with a weight of 0.28%, Immutable ($IMX) with a weight of 0.32%, and Injective Protocol ($INJ) with a weight of 0.27%. Filecoin ($FIL), Cronos ($CRO), Hedera Hashgraph ($HBAR), Maker ($MKR), Cosmos ($ATOM), and Arbitrum ($ARB) have fallen out of our parameters and have been removed from the structure. 

Among existing assets, $BTC and $ETH have been rebalanced to 40% and 30%, respectively. The biggest other change was reducing the weight of Solana ($SOL) by 1.24%.

Obetavne napovedi 🚀

V pričakovanju volitev v ZDA in veliki verjetnosti za zmago podpornika bitcoina, se za risk-on naložbe (kriptovalute) pričakuje zelena jesen. ✅

NEWS

Pojavila so se ugibanja, da bo Trump na konferenci ta teden naznanil uvedbo strateških rezerv države v Bitcoinu ob njegovem predsedovanju. 

Optimizem v kripto svetu spodbujajo zapleti v demokratskem taboru. Biden je v nedeljo izstopil iz tekme za naslednji predsedniški stolček, pričakuje se da ga bo v kandidaturi zamenjala Kamala Harris.

STANJE NA TRGIH

• Fear& greed index se vse bolj nagiba na ponovni pohlep vlagateljev  64/100 točk 📈📈
• Prihajajoča Altcoin sezona (alti outperformajo Bitcoin🚀)

Prejšnji teden so spot BTC ETFs doživeli pritok v vrednosti $1,2 milijard💰💰 kar je dobra popotnica tudi za jutrišnje lansiranje ETH ETF skladov. 

Blackrock in druščina so objavili podrobnosti o prihajajočih ETH ETF skladih. Večina bo v začetni fazi imela ničelno provizijo, med njimi pa ne bo ravno Blackrocka, ki bo že v začetku uvedel provizijo.

Skrbi vzbujajo visoke provizije prihajajočega Grayscale sklada, kar se lahko ob prenizkem povpraševanju odrazi v obliki odlivov, kot pri Bitcoin ETF skladu v začetku leta.  

Ob prihajajoči altcoin sezoni in potencialnem uspešnem začetku trgovanja z spot ETH skladi se nadejamo visokih rasti. Zato smo v strategiji povečali utež $ETH in sorazmerno zmanjšali utež $BTC. V strategijo smo dodali Arbitrum $ARB kot L2 rešitev na Ethereumu ter tokenizirano zlato $PAXG, ki imata velik potencial za rast.

#ToTheMoon 🌔

Mt. Gox Funds Distribution

The Mt. Gox trustee recently moved significant amounts of $BTC and $BCH, leading to a slightly bearish market reaction. Kraken, one of the five exchanges selected to receive Mt. Gox funds, has confirmed receipt of these funds. Payouts to creditors' accounts are expected within 7 to 14 days. This distribution marks the end of a long wait for Mt. Gox creditors, who have endured over ten years to reclaim their funds. The distribution could influence market dynamics, potentially increasing liquidity but also adding selling pressure. The impact of these distributions will be closely watched by market participants.

Arbitrum's Undervalued Potential

Arbitrum's token $ARB has dropped 68% from its all-time high despite significant ecosystem growth. Arbitrum has become a major player in the blockchain industry, particularly in decentralised exchanges (DEXs), where it ranks third in volume. With over 665 DeFi dApps and 966,000 active addresses, Arbitrum's ecosystem is robust. Despite its achievements, ARB might be undervalued compared to other networks. Market analysts believe that if Arbitrum maintains its key support levels, it could see substantial gains. Investors view Arbitrum as a potentially lucrative investment given its strong fundamentals and market position.