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1. Market Overview

Despite strong institutional adoption and overall bullish developments, it feels like we are in the middle of a bear market. A major factor contributing to this stagnation is the wave of market disruptions over the past few weeks🤔

Most recently, on Friday, the market dipped following the largest crypto hack in history. The North Korean hacker group Lazarus, led by FBI-wanted Park Jin Hyok, stole $1.46 billion worth of $ETH from Bybit. Fortunately, Bybit has been managing the situation well, with enough reserves to cover the losses. They are also receiving support from the broader crypto industry, making it likely that this drop will be short-lived and eventually bought up by whales.

Here’s a recap of the past few Fridays👀

• Jan 17 – $TRUMP token launch
• Jan 24 – DeepSeek crash
• Jan 31 – Trump tariff announcement on Canada
• Feb 14 – $LIBRA launch
• Feb 21 – Bybit $1.46B hack

P.S. We're beginning to see a volatility squeeze forming on $BTC, $ETH, $AVAX, $INJ, and several other coins. This pattern often precedes a breakout and a significant shift in direction. If history is any guide, we should see a move in the next few days, as these squeezes typically don’t last long.

We don't rebalance often but we think the sideways chopping will soon end for $BTC and that might end the downspiral in the altcoinmarkets as well.

We added $PEPE and $ONDO.

Memecoins always perform well in bullmarkets and they are great diversifiers. They move fast and they move when others don't move. We have no intention to keep $PEPE as a long term holding. But it is a contrarian play.

At the same time we lowered our $SOL position as it looks weaker than in the previous bullmarket. We increased our allocation to $XRP as it seems to become the king of this bullmarket. $AAVE and $ONDO are our favourite defi-plays.

We still believe in $INJ and $LINK proved to be a great diversifier for a long long time.

Crypto Market Pulse 👀

• Another eventful day in crypto
• CPI inflation data came in higher than expeced🤔
• CPI inflation print likely market the local bottom✅
• National Bank of Canada has purchased $2 million in Bitcoin ETFs😆
• Trump has chosen Brian Quintenz, current Head of Policy at a16z Crypto, as the new Chair of the CFTC👌
• Binance posted proof-of-reserves revealing that they recently sold crypto to pay the $4.3 billion DOJ fine🤦‍♂️
• Cboe files 19b-4 seeking SEC approval of "staking" in 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF🔥
• $INJ sent shockwaves throughout the world of finance with the TradFi Stocks Index launch🚀
• $ONDO announced a strategic collaboration with Trup-backed World Liberty Finance to advance the adoption of tokenized RWA🤔

Below is a chart showing how CPI prints have marked the last five local bottoms for $BTC 👀 With the FTX distribution just days away, there's a strong likelihood that we'll see a similar pattern this time around.

Crypto Market Pulse 👀

• Positive Coinbase Premium✅
• ECB and Canada lowered interest rates🤑
• Spike in ETF inflows after a slow start of the week👌
• SEC approved Bitwise combined $BTC and $ETH ETF💪
• Michael Saylor is on a new Forbes cover🤔
• Last cycle SBF made it to the cover and we all know how it ended🤦‍♂️
• Hopefully, this time it truly is different😅
• Hong Kong SFC issues first crypto licenses of 2025👀
• Only 4 assets got approved ($BTC, $ETH, $AVAX, and $LINK)🤔
• They are all part of our structure🔥
• $INJ released the first on-chain index product that combines stocks and the largest AI tokens into one asset🚀
• Treasury announced that $241 billion will be printed on February 3rd via Treasury auction💸

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/

Post 2/2

We will need huge amounts of liquidity for the alt season to properly start, multiples compared to previous bull runs, and even then it will be important where this liquidity flows. The problem in the end are the investors themselves, because they are impatient and want 100x or even 1000x returns over night instead of trying to grow their portfolios incrementally and that's why at least so far the liquidity has not flowed into major alt coins.

If anyone tells you at this point that they know where the market will go they are either lying on purpose or are overconfident in their truth. We can just try to predict, we cannot know, but in our view we have a few months left for the alt season to play out, before the period of low summer liquidity kicks in. If there will be an alt season we think it either happens in Q1/start of Q2 or towards the end of the year in late Q3/Q4. A lot depends on Jerome Powell’s speeches (one is happening tomorrow) and how traditional markets will react, we do not see a scenario where traditional markets go down and crypto markets go up.

There has been a lot of different talks, from pro-crypto administration in the US to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, ETF for $ETH staking and so on. The big picture has been the same when we zoom out, the global liquidity is still increasing and will continue to at least for the next few months, after that it is a bit more blurry, because the FED has already started reducing their balance sheet, but liquidity is coming from other sources.

As stated multiple times, we still believe in alt season, that is why we have not rebalanced our portfolio a lot, we still believe in $INJ the most, but only time will tell where we will end up. We will be switching $RUNE to $LDO, because Thorchain’s future is somewhat unclear at this moment and if $ETH staking ETF will happen then $LDO should perform well in theory.

We are keeping track on what is going on in the market on a daily basis, but as stated in the posts from the past, until our thesis changes we will not be making any major changes to the portfolio and are staying hopeful for the potential alt season.