Divine Investing

Quick update, our last rebalance is looking quite good currently, $INJ seems to be waking up a bit. $BTC is still consolidating/is in a $60-70k range. We remain bullish in the short to mid-term, especially up to the US election in November. There have not been any major changes in the crypto market in the past ~3 months, that's why we have not been posting as much lately, because there is not much to analyze. No changes in the portfolio for now.

Yesterday $BTC went up to almost $70k because of a lower Consumer Price Index (CPI) print than expected, meaning that inflation was lower than the market anticipated, but afterwards the FED chair Jerome Powell had a FOMC speech and this is when the sentiment shifted a bit, because he hinted at less rate cuts than the market was pricing in. All in all until we are in $60-70k range we can just wait patiently.

We are rebalancing everything back to original weights with one major change - we are swapping our $FET holding for $RNDR. The decision for this is that FET is merging their token with $OCEAN and $AGIX to form Superintelligence Alliance and a new token called Artificial Superintelligence ($ASI).

We could not find any info on when exactly this will happen, however that means that the FDV of the new token will be over two times bigger than FET's current FDV. Because of this uncertainty we have decided to rotate into Render, which also covers the AI narrative in the market and has had one of the stronger bounces recently.

Below we are attaching $FTM's chart from 2021. We want to use it as an example of what could happen in the coming months. You can clearly see large drawdowns which are very painful to hold through and our belief is that this is happening again to some extent.

The large majority of coins have already seen huge drawdowns, but due to the fact we have entered the positions early in the bull market we remain in the green. A great example of this is $INJ which is about -55% down from the all time high, but our expectation is that it is just one of these large drawdowns as we can see on Fantom's graph. These are quite difficult to trade or to time. Many people trading with leverage get liquidated on such moves, that is why just holding spot positions is much better for the large majority of investors.

We will see what happens, but we remain optimistic and think that the largest and volatile moves still lie ahead of us. As always - not financial advice and do not risk what you are not willing to lose fully.

We are switching our thinking on L2's slightly and are removing $OP from the structure. One reason is that there are numerous L2's on the market with more coming and there is no clear answer which one will be the winner. Another reason is that even though $ARB and $OP have good fundamentals a large majority of the tokens have not been vested yet and are unlocking daily/monthly. Therefore the market caps for these coins is going up at a much faster rate than the price.

These are the reasons we are moving Optimism's share of the portfolio into $RUNE. We have had it in our structure in the past, most of the tokens are already vested and with it we are adding our exposure to the $BTC's ecosystem. It has also had a very similar retrace from ATH compared to Optimism.

As far as our other coins go - $INJ and $TIA have had the strongest bounces, while $FET has been performing the best overall.

Today is something what we call a "max pain" day. Something that happens a few times during a bull run. After altcoins have dropped significantly in the previous weeks they have dropped again today because of the news that Iran has attacked Israel. We think that the market has overreacted and will correct itself sooner or later, but we could see more downside. This event could be compared to Covid panic in our opinion. All we wish for is peace, war is never a good solution.

As far as our strategy goes we still believe we are in a bull market. Yes, it is hard to hold through these downturns, but this is the nature of crypto, it is very volatile. As we have mentioned in the past we will not be rebalancing to stable coins while we believe we're in a bull run, because these downturns are extremely hard to predict, especially when something happens like it did today.

It's hard to keep your emotions out of the picture, but the more times you go through downturns as such, the easier it gets, although it's never easy.

It looks like $INJ is finally starting to move after almost 3 months of consolidation. It has broken and retested the triangle structure which looked bullish to us 2 posts ago, we are attaching a picture below. We have once again entered the price discovery phase. We feel that our strategy has been performing quite well, despite the fact that Injective has been moving sideways and that almost half of our strategy consists of it. This is largely due to gains in $IMX, $OP and especially $FET. $TIA remains in consolidation for the time being and will break out of it sooner or later in our opinion. In case Injective will have a sharp increase in price we will be scaling back our position and rebalancing it to other coins.

Today was also a CPI (Consumer Price Index) day in the US and even with inflation being 0.1% higher than expected, the stock market has reacted positively so far, which is a sign of a strong market and is also very positive for the crypto market at this moment.

We continue to see strong inflows from $BTC ETFs with over $500M inflows just yesterday and over $10B since the ETFs were approved. The one negative thing is that there is a divergence forming on a daily time frame on Bitcoin from a technical standpoint, which normally leads to corrections, that is why we would not be surprised to see a pullback in the coming weeks.

If you have any questions or do not understand some parts of what we have written above feel free to ask us in the comments and we will do our best to answer in an understandable way.