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How Long Will This Crypto Bull Run Last? An Overview [2024]
The crypto market has been buzzing with energy as many cryptocurrencies continue to experience impressive growth. And leading the charge is Bitcoin, which has seen its price increase by around 15% this past month alone.
This has led many to believe that we are currently in the midst of a crypto bull run, which is hard to refute, seeing how many crypto holdings have continued to soar in value over the past few months. But whilst this has naturally benefited existing investors and traders, it is important to note that there are also many people who want to invest in crypto but who don't know when to buy.
Either way, both groups share one thing in common, and that is a preoccupation with one central question — how long will the current crypto bull run last?
This article will therefore aim to provide useful information regarding crypto market cycles, how long past crypto bull runs have lasted, current indicators, and optimal ways you can capitalise on the current and next bull run.
We’ll be talking about:
- Understanding Crypto Bull Runs
- Predicting the Current Bull Run's Duration
- ICONOMI’s Crypto Strategies
- Leveraging Diversified Portfolios to Mitigate Bull Run Unpredictability
Let’s dive right in!
Understanding Crypto Bull Runs
In order to anticipate how long a crypto bull run might last, it’s useful to first have an understanding of crypto market cycles, and then analysing past crypto bull runs in order to see what comes up.
Let's first elaborate on crypto market cycles to provide a foundation for further analysis.
Crypto market cycles explained
Put simply, crypto market cycles consist of alternating phases of growth and decline, as well as bull cycles and bear cycles. Bull cycles are marked by significant price increases and heightened investor enthusiasm, while bear cycles see price drops and widespread caution. Unlike traditional markets, crypto cycles can be more volatile and less predictable, primarily due to the relatively young and speculative nature of digital assets.
It's important to note that crypto market cycles are similar in scope to traditional markets (the occasional ups and downs), but also have distinct differences. On one hand traditional markets usually have more stable and longer cycles, and are influenced by more established economic indicators; as well as the activities of institutional and governmental actors.
On the other hand, crypto markets are much more prone to quick market shifts that are caused by things such as regulatory changes, technological developments, social media trends and weak tokenomics. This naturally leads to shorter and more intense cycles, which makes it much more difficult to predict market movements accurately.
Analysing past crypto bull runs
Historically, each crypto bull run has lasted for different periods of time, and usually between a few months to over a year.
For example, the 2017 bull run saw Bitcoin's price increase from below $1,000 in January to almost $20,000 by December, resulting in a massive 1,900% increase in the space of a year. In terms of what caused this bull run, there were some combining triggers that included an increase in mainstream interest, widespread media coverage, and the introduction of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). This resulted in many crypto projects raising millions in a matter of days and caused widespread FOMO.
With regards to the crypto bull run that started in September 2020, and ended in November 2021, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from $10,000 to $64,000. This was primarily triggered by institutional capital inflow from the likes of Tesla and MicroStrategy. As well as a successful PR movement that resulted in more and more mainstream actors upholding crypto as a legitimate asset class.
In terms of the 2024 crypto bull run, the price of Bitcoin saw new all-time-highs, breaking past $73,000 in March 2024. Many are saying three things have led to this, and that is the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF (and subsequent capital inflows), macroeconomic indicators, and anticipation for this year's Bitcoin halving. In terms of this current bull market, there is no current consensus.
What can we gather from this?
After looking at the previous three bull runs, it's clear that all were triggered by certain external factors, including media coverage, market maturity, technological and legal advancements, and external economic conditions.
What's more, these external factors can also be accredited for maintaining each respected crypto bull run, as both retail and institutional capital inflows appear to be driven by positive external factors (as well as technical indicators). In other words, the crypto bull runs are maintained by positive (current and anticipated) regulatory news, technological developments, and bullish technical indicators that are influenced by the aforementioned.
However, these periods of growth also end with the same factors that cause bull runs, including shifting market sentiment, regulatory changes, major events, and macroeconomic influences. The unpredictable nature of the crypto market means that while bull runs offer potential for significant gains, they are always subject to reversal.
Predicting the Current Bull Run's Duration
In an attempt to determine whether this crypto bull run has continued growth or not, let's have a look at some current indicators and see what can be gathered from this.
The following should not be viewed as investment advice.
Current indicators
Market sentiment: Alternative's Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at around 72 (Greed), which indicates a lot of continued optimism for Bitcoin. Metrics used to determine this include volatility (25%), market momentum/volume (25%), social media (15%), surveys (15%), dominance (10%) and trends (10%).
Technical analysis: According to Crypto Purview's technical analysis, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is hovering around 69, which in theory may suggest that Bitcoin is nearing overbought territory, and a slight downturn (even if temporary) could possibly be on the horizon.
On-chain data: The Bitcoin hash rate is currently at around 712.08 exahashes per second (EH/s), according to CoinWarz's data, which indicates a robust and secure network. However, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has steadily decreased, and according to Glassnode's data, this has went down from 17,954,293 in Jan to 14,672,506 in April.
Macroeconomic factors: In a blog post, crypto expert Arthur Hayes states that Bitcoin would continue to decline following halving. He attributes this to unfavourable macroeconomic conditions and the bullish consensus of halving, which, according to him, usually means the opposite. Combine this with sticky inflation, uncertain regulations, and scandals, and then this "slightly" pessimistic outlook could hold some weight.
How long will the current bull run last?
According to current indicators, although there are some bullish indicators, it appears there are also some indicators pointing towards some "slight" downturn for Bitcoin. However, if one is to look at previous bull runs, then it is possible that any current slight downturn could simply be indicative of a bull flag, and a surge in price could follow shortly after.
However, the truth of the matter is that no one can say for certain how long this current crypto bull run will last, or when the next bear market will be upon us. However, what investors can do is equip themselves with a holistic understanding of crypto bull runs and what maintains them in order to best anticipate the duration.
As was shown in the previous section, crypto bull runs rely upon an optimistic (qualitative and quantitative) outlook on the market from retail and institutional investors, and this is mainly influenced by positive external factors. So, knowing how to identify market-boosting events and developments in advance (combined with a good understanding of how technical indicators) can potentially increase the chances of having a rough idea of continued market growth.
But for long-term investors who don't think they have the ability to predict the duration of the current bull run (or who simply don't have the time to do so), then having a diversified and managed crypto portfolio could potentially negate the importance of knowing how long a bull run will last.
Leveraging Diversified Portfolios to Mitigate Bull Run Unpredictability
Making a diversified crypto portfolio involves spreading investments across various assets to mitigate risk and enhance potential returns. This might involve Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins and DeFi tokens, which in theory could increase the likelihood that potential losses from one asset are balanced out by gains from another.
When it comes to the crypto bull run unpredictability, having a diversified crypto portfolio is an excellent way of negating the importance of guessing when a bull run will start or end, as many will have long-term horizons and are designed in a way which doesn't require short-term external factors to bring about a return on investment (ROI).
What's more, many platforms offer actively managed crypto portfolio products, which means that fund managers can rebalance a portfolio if need be, and few come close to the reputation and value offering that ICONOMI currently offers.
ICONOMI’s Crypto Strategies
ICONOMI is an FCA-regulated crypto investment platform that simplifies crypto investing for a wide range of investors through Crypto Strategies.
ICONOMI offers around 200 crypto strategies that are designed with different risk tolerance and market outlooks in mind and are actively managed by experienced strategists who were once community members themselves but who have become tried and tested investors. Users can choose strategies based on return potential, risk category, or diversification approach, and performance data is also readily available, so you can see the performance of each strategy from launch up till today.
So the great thing about these crypto strategies is that because they are managed by experienced managers, investors can benefit from their diversified portfolios without needing extensive time or knowledge to manage individual assets. This makes it an ideal solution for those looking to capitalise on the current and future crypto bull runs.
Strategies for crypto bull markets
Below is an example of a crypto strategy examples that has experienced impressive ROI in all three crypto bull runs and therefore, could be ideal for effectively riding through periods of growth and uncertainty:
Blockchain Index Strategy
According to its description, the Blockchain Index is a passively managed crypto strategy that invests in established blockchain projects with active beta components. This crypto strategy has a fixed weight of Bitcoin (40.37%) and Ethereum (29.66%), and also includes well known Altcoins such as Binance Coin (9.32%) and Solana (7.61%); as well as projects with potential strategic importance such as Arweave (0.29%).
In terms of its performance, besides having seen a return of +117.68 % for this year so far, it is clear that the Blockchain Index Strategy has also consistently brought up impressive ROI throughout each bull run cycle, making it an ideal choice for those wanting to capitalise on the current and next one.
Conclusion
Throughout this analysis, we've delved into the dynamics of crypto bull runs, and examined their causes, past durations, and the impacts of external factors; such as technological advancements, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic conditions. Combined with a look at current indicators, it is clear that bull runs are cyclic in nature, and are heavily influenced by external factors.
However, in terms of how long this crypto bull will last, even though there are some positive indicators (combined with some that indicate a temporary downturn), there is no way to say for certain.
The good news is that for those looking to mitigate uncertainty, diversifying through managed crypto strategies like those hosted on ICONOMI enables investors to optimise returns without needing to constantly monitor market speculation. By investing in a tried and tested crypto portfolio, investors can "potentially" protect their investments against market fluctuations while capitalising on crypto bull runs.
But as is always the case, only invest what you can afford to lose, and continue to educate yourself on all of the important intricacies that impact the crypto market.
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